TEHRAN- An economic analyst, referring to Trump's recent trip to China, said: This trip had no strategic achievements, especially in the economic sphere, for the United States, and contrary to what was imagined, it was not useful for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Donald Trump's recent trip to China took place at a time when many international analysts had assessed, before it occurred, that this trip was an action to compensate for Washington's strategic failure in the tariff war against Beijing and to find a joint solution for reopening the Strait of Hormuz for the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers. However, evidence shows that the United States was unable to achieve its primary goals on this trip.

The tariff war, whose main goal was to curb China's economic growth and reduce its trade surplus with the United States, faced a smart reaction from Beijing, including the use of the rare earth metals lever, as well as legal challenges in the US Supreme Court. This failure has effectively changed the atmosphere of relations between the two countries. It seems that the United States, at least in the medium term, will not be able to use a direct aggressive tone against China and will be forced to adjust its approach.

On the other hand, the two countries also did not reach a common result or strategy on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, and even the issue of persuading China to stop purchasing Iranian oil did not lead to the desired outcome for the White House.

* China is winner of Trump's tariff war

Majid Shakeri, an economic analyst, stated in an interview with IRNA regarding Trump's trip to China and evaluating its results: The consensus among Western analysts is that Trump's relations with China in all aspects are influenced by his last year's failure in the tariff war against China. Although the tariff war was initially imposed on almost all countries in the world, its ultimate target was China, because China has the largest trade surplus compared to the rest of the world, especially the United States.

He added: The Chinese reaction through the use of the rare earth metals lever on one hand, and the questioning of the legal basis of the tariff war by the US Supreme Court on the other, caused a significant failure for the United States. It seems the Americans, at least for a period of four to five years until they can somewhat address the rare earth metals issue, are forced to back down from a direct aggressive tone towards China. Although they maintain pressure through various means, they cannot overtly apply direct pressure on the Chinese side like in Trump's first term or Biden's term.

* Blockade of Strait of Hormuz or action against China?

Regarding Iran, this economic analyst said: The Chinese consider the blockade as directly against themselves and view it within the framework of US naval pressure against their own navy. For this reason, they are reviewing and examining various scenarios about the meaning of the blockade, not only in the Iran case but throughout the region from the Sea of Oman to the Taiwan Strait.

Shakeri stated: Since it was announced that the Americans would gradually prepare an independent fleet to begin operations in the Indian Ocean in 2019, this issue has become very frequent for the Chinese side, to the extent that the Chinese fundamentally consider the blockade issue as a direct action against themselves, not just against Iran.

* Insecurity in Persian Gulf by US is not in anyone's interest

Shakeri also said regarding China's oil supply: Given the worsening climate conditions in the world, the Chinese have taken the settlement of the energy program seriously, and regardless of economic variables, for security reasons, they try as much as possible not to disrupt the order and composition of their energy. This issue has become more serious and important than before after the fall of Venezuela, because the Americans are clearly using the tool of controlling China's oil input as a means to confront China.

This economic analyst added: In Tehran's expert circles, it was assumed that the Chinese side would not cooperate with the blockade. Now it has become clear in practice that the issue of the Strait of Hormuz is primarily resolved by the removal of the American blockade. As long as the blockade is not lifted or remains in place, it is obvious that Iran has no incentive to reopen the strait and help the passage of goods through it.

Shakeri continued: The Americans initially made the strait completely insecure and effectively turned it into a war zone; this very issue has conveyed to Iran the necessity that as long as the Americans continue the blockade, it must maintain security control over the strait? in its new concept, meaning from southern Iraq to the west of the UAE. The Chinese know this.

He stated: This is the reason for China's emphasis that the region should not be militarized. That is, the Americans should not use the strait for the passage of their military vessels and should not re-establish their bases in the south of the Persian Gulf with international dimensions and long-range radars.

The economic expert, recalling that US bases in the region are used to make the Persian Gulf insecure, emphasized: Neither the Iranians, nor the Chinese, nor the Russians, nor any other country agree with the militarization of the region.

* Trip to China yielded no achievement for America on Iran issue

The economic analyst stressed: Although the Americans delayed Trump's trip to be able to bring a better result on the Iran file to the Chinese and create a forward-looking meeting for themselves, so far they have not achieved any results on the main file, i.e., the Iran file. Strategically, this meeting is not at all like the picture the Americans had of it six or four months ago, and they have not achieved what they wanted.

Regarding necessary actions by Iran, Shakeri replied: Iran must act quickly; the fact that Iran has foreign currency reserves for this transitional period should not cause the strategic concept of the blockade and its meaning to be forgotten. We must break the blockade by striking back or create a military balance that neutralizes the blockade. This is the number one issue, and everything else gains meaning after this.

* Iran should enter direct negotiations with consumers of Persian Gulf oil

The economic expert stated: Next, I still believe that Iran, through bilateral communication with Persian Gulf energy consumers, will achieve far better economic, political, and security results than negotiating with the American side, because the American side is incapable of reaching an agreement.

Shakeri, recalling that the US has never made an absolute agreement with anyone and is fundamentally technically incapable of reaching an agreement, added: The US does not have the necessary patience to reach a bilateral agreement, and one could even say it lacks the ability to strategize for a sustainable agreement. This issue is not specific to negotiation and agreement with Iran, and they have had the same approach with Britain, Europe, Japan, and China, we should not forget that.

He concluded by stating that the resolution of the Iran issue is not easily possible, and said: Iran has the necessary tools to break the blockade, but it must receive the guarantee that its security will be ensured forever.

EF/MA